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With acknowledgment to ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders
A dramatic rise in temperatures high above Antarctica more than 30 degrees Celsius in just a week (its still below minus 25 degrees) has caught the attention of climate scientists and meteorologists across the globe.
The phenomenon, known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), occurs when temperatures in the stratosphere tens of kilometres above the South Pole suddenly surge. This rare event has the potential to disrupt Australia’s weather patterns for months to come, shifting rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns well into summer.
A Rare Southern Hemisphere Event
According to ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders, SSW events are extremely rare in the Southern Hemisphere, with only two major occurrences documented in the past 60 years 2002 and 2019. Both years went on to record some of the most devastating bushfire seasons in Australian history.
While the 2025 SSW is not expected to trigger conditions as severe as the Black Summer fires, it is already upending spring forecasts. The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) latest outlook reflects this sudden shift, showing no clear trend toward the wetter conditions many had hoped for earlier in the season.
Warm, Dry and Windy: What It Means for Hawkesbury
In spring, westerly winds typically bring warm and dry weather to Australia’s eastern states a pattern likely to be strengthened by the current stratospheric disruption. The only region expected to reliably see more rain is western Tasmania.
Meanwhile, the increase in cold fronts embedded within those westerlies can mean more bursts of strong winds and higher fire danger days, particularly for inland New South Wales. These same systems could enhance the contrast between the dry, warm east and the cooler, wetter south coast.
Forecast Downgrade and Ongoing Effects
The BOM’s November outlook has already downgraded the chances of above-average rainfall, suggesting that warmer and drier weather may persist well into January. This pattern is consistent with historical research showing that SSW events can have a lingering impact on Australia’s weather for months after the initial temperature spike.
A Silver Lining
Despite the challenges this poses for farmers, firefighters and forecasters, there may yet be some positive outcomes. Meteorologists note that the turbulent atmospheric changes caused by SSWs can sometimes help rebalance global wind patterns, easing extreme weather elsewhere on the planet.
For now, however, it’s a reminder of how interconnected our planet’s climate truly is and how an unexpected warming high above Antarctica can ripple all the way through to the Hawkesbury, shaping the seasons ahead.
