ANALYSIS | Sparky Sean
Sometimes in politics, it is not the speeches that tell the story. Sometimes it is simply the numbers.
And at Hawkesbury City Council on September 8, one number stood out.
Three.
Hawkesbury has four Liberal councillors Sarah McMahon, Mike Creed, Jill Reardon and Paul Veigel. That is confirmed by the NSW Electoral Commission following the 2024 local government election.
Yet when Liberal Councillor Mike Creed contested the position of Deputy Mayor at Council's September 8 leadership election, he received just three votes in the penultimate round.
Councillor Nathan Zamprogno received eight, Councillor Creed received three and Labor Councillor Amanda Kotlash received one. Cr Zamprogno ultimately secured the deputy mayoralty.
So, when four becomes three, it naturally raises a question.
What happened to the fourth vote?
There is an important qualification.
The election was conducted by secret ballot, so nobody outside the individual councillors can responsibly claim to know who voted for whom.
It cannot therefore be stated as fact that one of the four Liberal councillors didn't vote for Cr Creed. Creed could have attracted a vote from outside the Liberal group while losing support from one or more Liberal colleagues.
But politically, the result is still interesting. Four Liberal councillors sat in the chamber. A Liberal candidate stood for Deputy Mayor. He received three votes.
For a party that traditionally places considerable importance on organisation, discipline and presenting a united team, that arithmetic deserves examination.
And Hawkesbury may not be the only place where the NSW Liberal Party has recently found itself wrestling with its own numbers.
From Hawkesbury to a statewide problem
The Liberal Party's problems at local government level did not begin in September 2026. They exploded spectacularly into public view before the 2024 NSW local government elections.
The NSW Liberal Party failed to lodge nomination paperwork by the deadline for about 140 candidates.
The ABC reported that Liberal candidates were completely absent from several council contests, while candidates in numerous other local government areas also missed out. The episode was not described inside Liberal ranks as a minor administrative hiccup.
Then NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman reportedly described it as probably the worst act of mismanagement in the party's history, while Liberal frontbencher Antony Roberts called the situation a "catastrophic failure".
The consequences were real.
The party's state director Richard Shields was removed, and close to 140 prospective Liberal candidates ultimately remained off local government ballot papers.
That was 2024.
Fast-forward to 2026 and another local government drama has unfolded, this time in Parramatta.
Parramatta: when one vote changes everything
On September 28, Labor Councillor Cameron MacLean was elected Lord Mayor of Parramatta.
The decisive vote came from Councillor Tanya Raffoul, who had resigned from the Liberal Party earlier that same day.
According to the ABC, Cr Raffoul said she was disappointed by what she regarded as the Liberal Party's direction and its treatment of multicultural communities.
Her vote was enough to help install a Labor Lord Mayor.
Think about that politically. One councillor. One departure. One vote. And the mayoralty changed hands.
It is difficult not to compare that with what happened only weeks earlier in the Hawkesbury.
Again, we cannot say who cast the ballots for Cr Creed.
But we can ask whether the NSW Liberal Party is experiencing a broader problem keeping its local government representatives pulling in the same direction.
And then there is Hawkesbury
The Hawkesbury result becomes even more interesting when compared with the previous Council leadership election.
Following the 2024 local government election, Sarah McMahon contested the Deputy Mayor position.
In the final round she received six votes against Mary Lyons-Buckett's six.
Cr McMahon was ultimately elected Deputy Mayor after her name was drawn by lot to break the deadlock.
Two years later, the political landscape looked very different.
On September 8, 2026, Mary Lyons-Buckett was elected Mayor and Nathan Zamprogno Deputy Mayor.
The Liberal Party, despite holding four of the Council's 12 seats, secured neither leadership position.
And Mike Creed's three-vote result leaves an unanswered question about just how united the local Liberal team really is.
There is another reason this deserves closer examination. Cr Creed has previously spoken publicly about serious tensions within Hawkesbury City Council.
During the May 12 Council meeting, while debating the controversial media ban, Cr Creed became emotional while speaking about alleged bullying, intimidation and threats from fellow councillors and what he said was the impact those experiences had on him.
The Hawkesbury Gazette reported those claims at the time. They remain allegations rather than independently established findings, but they provide important context to the relationships inside the chamber.
So perhaps the question should not simply be: who didn't vote for Mike?
The bigger question is: why has the relationship between members of Hawkesbury's elected Liberal team apparently reached the point where that question can reasonably be asked at all?
The warning signs were already being discussed.
This issue of Liberal Party unity in the Hawkesbury was also raised during my May 18, 2026 interview on The Common Point with Hawkesbury MP Robyn Preston.
A listener submitted the following question:
"What is Robyn doing to address the growing number of Liberal members leaving the Macquarie branches for One Nation and ongoing issues with the branches struggling to meet a quorum?"
Ms Preston did not attack other members of her party.
Instead, she brought the answer back to representation and performance:
"You know, I've just focused on me looking after my people... Hawkesbury will judge you on what you stand up for, what you deliver, what you fight for and what you advocate for the people of the Hawkesbury."
It was a professional political answer. But the question from the listener is arguably even more relevant now than it was in May.
Leadership means more than winning a title
The Liberal Local Government Assembly itself has an important role inside the NSW Liberal organisation.
Under the NSW Liberal Party constitution, its functions include coordinating Liberal Party activity in local government, advising the State Executive and State Director on local government campaigning and considering policy issues affecting councils across NSW.
That makes leadership within the Assembly more than a ceremonial title. It carries a responsibility to help build an effective local government organisation. And that brings the issue back home.
Cr Sarah McMahon, who was recently elected to lead NSW Liberal Councillors, is to play a senior role in rebuilding and unifying the Liberal Party at the NSW Local Government level, Hawkesbury provides a useful test case.
Before fixing the problems across 128 councils, perhaps the first challenge is ensuring the four Liberal councillors sitting around the same table in Windsor can work effectively together.
That does not mean agreeing on everything.
In fact, councillors should be prepared to disagree with their own parties when they believe their community's interests demand it.
But if party discipline and unity are expected when leadership positions are contested, then a Liberal candidate receiving three votes when four Liberal councillors are sitting in the chamber creates an obvious political question.
Accountability starts at home
The NSW Liberal Party has some rebuilding to do.
The 2024 nomination debacle demonstrated what happens when basic party administration fails.
Parramatta demonstrated what can happen when internal political relationships fracture badly enough for a councillor to walk away.
And Hawkesbury has now produced its own curious piece of political arithmetic.
We do not know who cast those votes. That is what a secret ballot means.
But voters are entitled to look at the result and ask what it says about the state of the local Liberal team.
Political parties frequently talk about accountability, leadership and good governance. Those principles cannot only apply to the other side of politics.
They have to start at home.
Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the NSW Liberals at local government level is not Labor, the Greens, independents or One Nation.
Perhaps it is rebuilding trust and cohesion inside their own organisation. Because when four becomes three, eventually somebody is going to ask:
Where did the other one go?
Liberals should be asking why Mike Creed, the Liberal nominated councillor only received 3 vote for Deputy Mayor not 4? Was there a failure of party discpline and if so what is the consequence?
I believe that would be a good starting point for the once dominate Liberal party in the Hawkesbury to rebuild on.
