One Nation's newly formed Hawkesbury–Macquarie branch is gathering momentum as new polling suggests almost half of NSW voters are prepared to abandon the major political parties at the next state election.
The latest Resolve Political Monitor, as published in the Sydney Morning Herald, has delivered a stark warning to both Labor and the Coalition, with support for the two major parties falling to historic lows while One Nation records its strongest result in recent state polling.
The survey found NSW Labor's primary vote has fallen to 29 per cent, while the Coalition has dropped to 23 per cent. At the same time, One Nation's support has climbed to 25 per cent, making it the principal beneficiary of growing voter dissatisfaction.
Overall, 48 per cent of NSW voters indicated they would vote for a party other than Labor or the Coalition if an election were held today.
Political analyst Jim Reed from Resolve said recent political controversies appeared to have damaged confidence in both major parties.
"There have been a number of political scandals in the last few weeks, and they tend to tar all politicians with the same brush," he said.
He said One Nation was benefiting because many voters viewed it as an alternative to the established political system.
Hawkesbury Branch Established
The polling comes a couple of weeks after One Nation supporters gathered at Hawkesbury Race Club to establish the party's first Hawkesbury–Macquarie branch.
Around 40 people attended the inaugural meeting held on 14 July, which elected an executive committee and discussed preparations for the March 2027 NSW election.
The meeting elected two members of One Nation's youth organisation, Young Nation, to the positions of Branch Coordinator and Secretary, while a retired local accountant was elected Treasurer.
Party officials advised the meeting that applications from prospective candidates wishing to contest the 2027 NSW election close on 30 July 2026.
Local Candidate Considering Nomination
One of those attending the meeting, a Hawkesbury resident who did not want to be named (and is not pictured above), told those present he intended to return home after the meeting and submit his application to seek preselection.
The potential candidate said his decision reflected growing frustration with what he saw as a lack of accountability across government.
"I'm concerned about the lack of responsibility taken by anyone in government and the constant excuses given for why things can't be done," he said.
"I'm a natural conciliator. I'd much rather solve problems with a good laugh than an angry word."
"I'm going to give One Nation a go because the other parties put themselves first and the community second."
A Changing Political Landscape
At the time of writing, both major parties face organisational challenges in the Hawkesbury. The four Liberal Party branches reportedly struggle to form a quorum at their monthly meetings, while the area's single Labor Party branch, although still functioning, has an ageing membership that is raising questions about its long-term viability.
The Resolve poll suggests dissatisfaction with traditional politics is continuing to reshape the NSW political landscape.
The survey was conducted during a period that included the NSW Budget and the announcement of the Independent Commission Against Corruption's public inquiry into alleged political donation practices involving The Hills Council.
While no findings have been made by the ICAC inquiry, the poll suggests the broader political environment has affected confidence in both major parties.
At the same time, Premier Chris Minns remains the preferred Premier, although his approval rating has also declined.
What It Could Mean for Hawkesbury and Macquarie
The establishment of a local One Nation branch means voters in both the Hawkesbury and Macquarie electorates are increasingly likely to have a locally organised One Nation campaign at the next state election.
Whether that translates into electoral success remains to be seen, but political observers say the latest polling demonstrates there is growing appetite among many NSW voters for alternatives to the major parties.
With candidate nominations closing next week, attention will now turn to who One Nation ultimately selects to contest the Hawkesbury and Macquarie electorates and whether the party can convert its polling momentum into votes at the ballot box.
Polling information was sourced from Sydney Morning Herald.
